Kodi Nkhondo ya Nyukiliya Angaichititse Ndani?

“Nkhondo ya zida za nyukiliya yomwe ingawononge anthu onse si nkhambakamwa chabe ayi. Nkhondoyi ingachitikedi, . . . ngakhale kuti chidani chachikulu chapakati pa dziko la United States ndi la Soviet Union chinatha kale zaka zoposa khumi zapitazo,” anatero amene kale anali nduna ya zachitetezo ku United States a Robert S. McNamara ndi a James G. Blight, omwe ndi pulofesa wa maphunziro a mgwirizano wa mayiko ku Watson Institute for International Studies.

M’CHAKA CHA 1991, chidani chachikulu pakati pa dziko la United States ndi dziko la Soviet Union chitatha, wotchi yotchuka yosonyeza chiwonongeko anaibweza m’mbuyo kuti isonyeze kuti kwatsala mphindi 17 kuti nthaŵi ikwane 12 koloko yausiku. Wotchiyi amaijambula pachikuto cha magazini yotchedwa Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ndipo nthaŵi ya pa wotchiyo imaimira nthaŵi imene akuganiza kuti yatsala kuti dziko lifike pa nkhondo ya nyukiliya (yomwe pawotchipo imaimira 12 koloko yausiku). Wotchiyi anali asanaibwezeko choncho chiikhazikitsireni mu 1947. Komabe, kungoyambira pa nthaŵiyi, ayamba kuikokera moipititsa patsogolo. Mwachitsanzo, mu February 2002, anaikokera kuti isonyeze kuti kwatsala mphindi 7 kuti nthaŵi ikwane 12 koloko yausiku, ndipotu aka kanali kachitatu kuti wotchiyi aipititse patsogolo chithereni chidani chachikulu  pakati pa dziko la United States ndi dziko la Soviet Union.

Kodi n’chiyani chinachititsa ofalitsa magazini ya zasayansiwo kuganiza zokokera nthaŵi ya pawotchiyo kuipititsa patsogolo? Kodi n’chiyani chikuwapangitsa kuona kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingathebe kuchitika? Ndipo kodi ndani angasokoneze mtendere m’njira imeneyi?

Chinsinsi cha Tanthauzo la Kuchepetsa Zida

Magazini ya Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists inati: “Zida za nyukiliya zoposa 31,000 zikusungidwabe.” Ndipo inapitiriza kuti: “Zambiri mwa zida zimenezi zili ku United States ndi ku Russia, ndipo zida zina zopitirira 16,000 zoterezi n’zotcheratchera kale.” Anthu ena angadabwe poona kuti zida za nyukiliya zidakalipobe zambiri. Kodi mayiko aŵiri okhala ndi zida zambiri za nyukiliyaŵa, sananene kuti panopo zida zawo azichepetsa moti zatsalapo 6,000 zokha m’dziko lililonse?

Apa m’pamene pagona chinsinsi cha tanthauzo la kuchepetsa zida kumene amanena. Lipoti lochokera ku bungwe la Carnegie Endowment for International Peace linalongosola kuti: ‘Zida 6,000 zimenezi amaziŵerengera pogwiritsira ntchito njira yapadera yowerengetsera zidazo malingana ndi zimene anagwirizana m’Pangano Lochepetsa ndi Kuletsa Zida Zoopsa. Mogwirizana ndi njira imeneyi mayiko onse aŵiri apitirizabe kukhala ndi zida zambirimbiri zosapita kutali ndi zinanso zongokhala padera.’ Magazini ya Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, inati: “Zida zambiri za dziko la United States zomwe anazichotsa pa malo amene zinkakhala zili zotcheratchera anangoziika m’nkhokwe (momwenso muli kale zida zina 5,000) ndipo sanaziphwasule.”

Motero kuphatikiza pa zida zambirimbiri zoopsa zimene zili m’nkhokwe, zomwe angathe kuzigwiritsa ntchito nthaŵi ina iliyonse, zimene zingathe kukafika ku mayiko akutsidya kwa nyanja, palinso zida zina za nyukiliya zambirimbiri ndipo palinso zina zomwe zimatha kupita madera a kufupiko. N’zachidziŵikire kuti mayiko aŵiri, okhala ndi zida zambiri za nyukiliyaŵa, adakali ndi zida za nyukiliya zokwanira kuwononga dziko lonse lapansi nthaŵi zambirimbiri! Kusunga zida zoopsa zochuluka chonchi, pakokha kumachititsa mantha poganizira kuti zidazi zingathe kuponyedwa mwangozi.

Nkhondo ya Nyukiliya Yochitika Mwangozi

Malingana ndi zimene ananena a Robert S. MacNamara ndi a James G. Blight, omwe mawu awo tawatchulapo kale m’nkhani ino, “asilikali a dziko la United States akhala akuyendera lamulo lakuti ayenera kukhala ‘okonzeka kuponya bomba akangoona chenjezo.’” Kodi lamuloli likutanthauza chiyani makamaka? Iwo analongosola kuti: “Ngati dziko la Russia litaponya zida zodzatiphulitsa, ifenso tingathe kubwezera potumiza zida zathu, zida zawozo zidakali m’mwamba.” Ndipo anawonjezera kuti: “Malingana ndi lamulolo, zimenezi tingazichite zisanapitirire n’komwe mphindi 15 kuchokera pamene tamva chenjezo lakuti dziko la Russia laponya bomba.” Munthu wina amene kale anali mkulu woona zoponya mabomba oopsa ku United States anati, “pafupifupi mabomba onse otere amene ali kumtunda ndi okonzeka kuponyedwa m’mphindi ziŵiri zokha basi.”

Chifukwa chakuti mabombaŵa amangokhala otcheratchera, zimachititsa mantha kuti angathe kudzaponyedwa mwangozi chifukwa cha machenjezo operekedwa molakwitsa. Nkhani ina m’magazini ya U.S.News & World Report, inati: “Nthaŵi zingapo ndithu, asilikali a dziko la United States akamachita maphunziro a nkhondo ya zida za nyukiliya akhala akulamula molakwitsa kuti bomba liponyedwe.” Ngakhalenso ku Russia aperekapo machenjezo olakwika otereŵa. Nthaŵi ina m’chaka cha 1995 chombo china chamumlengalenga chofufuza zinthu cha ku Norway anachiona ngati bomba la nyukiliya moti pulezidenti wa ku Russia anayambapo kukonzekera zoponya mabomba a nyukiliya pobwezera.

 Lamulo loti zidazi zizikhala zokonzeka kuponyedwa nthaŵi ina iliyonse limawaika pampanipani anthu amene ali ndi udindo wolamula kuti zidazo ziponyedwe. Mwayi wake, m’mbuyomu akuluakulu a asilikali ankazindikira kuti machenjezo amene ankalandira ankakhala olakwika, motero mpaka pano nkhondo ya nyukiliya yakhala ikupeŵedwa. Ponenapo za zimene zinachitika mu 1979, wofufuza wina anafotokoza kuti: “Chimene chinalepheretsa kuti mabomba a dziko la America [asaponyedwe] chinali zipangizo zathu zamlengalenga zounikira zida za adani, zomwe zinaonetsa kuti mumlengalenga munalibe mabomba aliwonse a dziko la Russia.” Komabe pakapita nthaŵi, zipangizo zounikirazi zimayamba kutha mphamvu. Ofufuza osiyanasiyana akuda nkhaŵa kuti “m’dziko la Russia, zipangizo zambiri zounikira zida za nyukiliya zinasiya kugwira ntchito kapena zinasuntha kuchoka m’malo amene anaziika kuti ziziyenda mozungulira dera linalake.” Motero munthu wina amene kale anali msilikali wa udindo m’dziko la United States anati: “Monga m’mbuyo monsemu m’posavuta kuyamba nkhondo kapena kuponya bomba chifukwa chosamvetsa bwino penapake, chifukwa chopatsa mphamvu anthu olakwika, kapena chifukwa cha zinthu zongochitika mwangozi.”

Mayiko Atsopano M’gulu la Mayiko a Zida za Nyukiliya

Ngakhale kuti zida zambiri za nyukiliya zili ndi mayiko aŵiri aja, mayiko enanso ali ndi zida za nyukiliya monga dziko la China, France, ndi Great Britain. Mayiko odziŵika kuti ali ndi zida za nyukiliyaŵa, posachedwapa analandira mamembala atsopano m’gulu lawo omwe ndi dziko la India ndi Pakistan. Koma palinso mayiko ena, monga Israel, omwe nthaŵi zambiri zimamveka kuti akufuna kapena anapeza kale zida za nyukiliya.

Pakati pa mayiko ameneŵa, ngati dziko lina litasemphana maganizo pa zandale ndi dziko linzake, ngakhale limene langopeza kumene zida za nyukiliya, ndiye kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingathe kuyambika. Magazini ya Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists inati: “Nkhondo ya pakati pa dziko la India ndi Pakistan . . . inachititsa kuti mayiko aŵiriŵa angotsala pang’ono kuyamba nkhondo ya nyukiliya, ndipotu zoterezi sizinachitikepo kuchokera panthaŵi imene dziko la Cuba linangotsala pang’ono kuponya zida za nyukiliya kudziko la United States zomwe linapatsidwa ndi dziko la Russia.” Anthu ambiri anayamba kuopa nkhondo ya nyukiliya kwambiri pamene wotchi yosonyeza nkhondo yotere ija anaikokera m’chaka cha 2002.

Kuphatikizanso apo, kupangidwa kwa zida zosakaza anthu ambirimbiri nthaŵi imodzi kwachititsa kuti kukhale kosavuta kugwiritsira ntchito mabomba a nyukiliya. Ponenapo za lipoti lachinsinsi la ku Pentagon, komwe n’kulikulu loona za chitetezo ku United States, nyuzipepala ya The New York Times inanena kuti n’kutheka kuti pankhani ya zida za nyukiliya dziko la United States layamba kuyendera mfundo yovomereza kuti “zingatheke kugwiritsira ntchito zida za nyukiliya pofuna kuwononga zida za adani zofalitsa tizilombo topereka matenda, zida za mankhwala akupha ndi zida zina zosakaza anthu ambirimbiri nthaŵi imodzi.”

 Zauchigaŵenga zimene zinachitika ku United States pa September 11, 2001, zinachititsa dziko lonse kuzindikira kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingathe kuchitika m’njira inanso. Anthu ambiri amakhulupirira kuti magulu a zigaŵenga akuyesa kukonza zida za nyukiliya kapena kuti ali nazo kale. Kodi zimenezi zingatheke bwanji?

Zigaŵenga ndi Mabomba Opangidwa ndi Zinyalala za Nyukiliya

Kodi n’zotheka kupanga bomba la nyukiliya pogwiritsira ntchito zinthu zogulitsidwa mwakatangale? Magazini ya Time inanena kuti inde, n’zotheka. Magaziniyo inapereka lipoti lokhudza gulu lina limene linakhazikitsidwa kuti lithandize kuletsa uchigaŵenga wogwiritsira ntchito zida za nyukiliya. Pakali pano gululi “lakonza [mabomba] oposa 12” opangira pakhomo pogwiritsira ntchito “zinthu zopezeka m’masitolo wamba ogulitsa zinthu zamagetsi komanso gasi wopangira zida za nyukiliya yemwe amapezeka ndi anthu akatangale.”

Kusiya kugwiritsira ntchito zida za nyukiliya ndiponso kuziphwasula kwachititsa kuti kuba zida za nyukiliya kukhale kophweka. Magazini ya Time inati: “Zida za nyukiliya zambirimbiri za ku Russia, zomwe anazichotsa m’mabomba, m’ndege, ndiponso m’sitima za pansi pamadzi, momwe zidazi zinali zotetezeka kwambiri, kenaka n’kukaziunjika m’malo osatetezeka kwenikweni zingakope zigaŵenga zofuna zida zotere.” Ngati zidutswa za zida za nyukiliya zimene aziphwasula zitapezedwa ndi kagulu kenakake, kenaka n’kuzilumikizanso pamodzi, posachedwa kagulu kameneko kangaloŵe nawo m’gulu la mayiko okhala ndi zida za nyukiliya!

Magazini ya Peace inati si kuti zimalira kukonza bomba kuti muloŵe nawo m’gulu la mayiko a zida za nyukiliya. Chofunika n’kungokhala ndi gasi wokwanira wopangira zida za nyukiliyazo basi. Magaziniyo inanena kuti: “Zigaŵenga zimene zili ndi gasi wotereyu zingathe kuphulitsa malo enaake mwa kungoponya gasi wamtundu winawake pamwamba pa gasi wamtundu winanso wotero komanso wochuluka mofanana.” Kodi pangafunike gasi wochuluka motani? Magaziniyo inati, “makilogalamu atatu okha basi angakwane.” Gasi ameneyu ndi wochuluka mofanana ndithu ndi amene akatangale omwe anamangidwa m’dziko la Czech Republic mu 1994 anagwidwa naye!

Zinyalala za zida za nyukiliya zingathenso kugwiritsidwa ntchito popanga zida zatsopano za nyukiliya. Magazini ya American Spectator inati: “Akatswiri akuda nkhaŵa poopa zoopsa zimene zingachitike ngati winawake ataika zinyalala za nyukiliya m’mabomba wamba.” Zida zamtundu umenewu, zomwe amazigwiritsira ntchito poponyera gasi wa nyukiliya, zimatchedwa kuti mabomba a zinyalala za nyukiliya. Kodi mabomba ameneŵa n’ngowopsa motani? Nyuzipepala yotchedwa IHT Asahi Shimbun inati m’mabombaŵa amaikamo “gasi wamba wamphamvu kwambiri pofuna kufalitsa kwa adani gasi woopsa wa nyukiliya m’malo mowapheratu ndi mphamvu kapena moto wa nyukiliya.” Ndiye inapitiriza kuti: “Mabombaŵa angachititse anthu kudwala matenda obwera chifukwa cha mphamvu ya zida za nyukiliya, kapena kufa imfa yowawa, koma yofa pang’onopang’ono.” Ngakhale kuti anthu ena amati zinyalala zosavuta kupeza za zida za nyukiliyazi sizingawononge kwambiri ataziika m’bomba, anthu ambiri akuda nkhaŵa chifukwa chakuti ngakhale gasi weniweni wa zida za nyukiliya akupezeka pa malonda a katangale. Motero atafufuza padziko lonse chaposachedwapa, anapeza kuti anthu oposa 60 pa anthu 100 aliwonse amene anafunsidwa ankaona kuti pa zaka 10 zikubwerazi, zigaŵenga zidzachita chiŵembu cha zida za nyukiliya.

Mosakayikira, anthu akuchitabe mantha kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ikhoza kuchitika padziko pano. Nyuzipepala ya ku Britain yotchedwa Guardian Weekly ya pa January 16-22, 2003, inati: “Panopa n’zosavuta kwambiri kuti dziko la United States ligwiritse ntchito zida za nyukiliya kuposa mmene zinalili kuchokera panthaŵi imene linkadana kwambiri ndi dziko la Soviet Union, . . . Dziko la United States likuwonjezera zifukwa zake zomwe limaona kuti n’zokwanira kuti liponye zida za nyukiliya.” Motero, mpake kufunsa kuti: “Kodi nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingathe kupeŵeka? Kodi pali chilichonse chotilimbitsa mtima kuti n’zotheka kuti anthu sadzaopanso nkhondo ya nyukiliya padziko pano? Mafunso ameneŵa tiwalongosola m’nkhani yotsatira.

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Kodi Ino Ndi Nyengo Inanso Imene Nkhondo ya Nyukiliya Ingachitike?

M’nkhani imene analemba mu magazini ya The New York Times, Bill Keller (amene tsopano ndi mkonzi wamkulu wa nyuzipepala ya The New York Times) analongosola kuti mayiko aloŵa nyengo inanso imene nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingachitike. Nyengo yoyamba yotere inalipo m’mbuyomo mpakana chaka cha 1994, pamene dziko la Ukraine linalola kupereka zida za nyukiliya zomwe linkasunga panthaŵi imene linali limodzi mwa mayiko a Soviet Union. Kodi n’chifukwa chiyani iyeyu akukamba za nyengo inanso ya nkhondo ya nyukiliya?

Keller analemba kuti: “Nyengo inanso ya zida za nyukiliya inayamba ndi kuphulika kwa bomba limene linamveka kuchipululu cha Rajasthani m’chaka cha 1998, pamene boma la a Hindu longoikidwa kumene ku India linaphulitsa mabomba asanu oyeserera. Patangotha masabata aŵiri okha, dziko la Pakistan linachitanso chimodzimodzi.” Kodi kuyesa mabombaku kunasiyana bwanji ndi kuyesa mabomba a nyukiliya komwe kunkachitika kale? “Mabombaŵa anakonzedwa moti akaponyedwa akagwere m’chigawo chinachake chokha basi.”

Choncho, kodi dziko lingakhale labata pamene mayiko okhala ndi zida za nyukiliya awonjezeka ndi mayiko enanso aŵiri? Keller anapitiriza kunena kuti: “Dziko limodzi lokha likapeza zida za nyukiliya, tsoka loti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ingachitike limawonjezeka.” Zimenezi anazinena m’nkhani yotchedwa “Zomwe Zingachitike,” yomwe inatuluka m’magazini ya The New York Times, ya pa May 4, 2003, tsamba 50.

Vutoli linakulanso kwambiri kutamveka kuti n’kutheka kuti dziko la North Korea lili ndi “gasi wa zida za nyukiliya wokwanira kupanga mabomba sikisi a nyukiliya. . . . Tsiku lililonse limawonjezera tsoka lakuti dziko la North Korea likwanitsa kupanga zida zatsopano za nyukiliya, mwinanso n’kuyesapo china kuti liwone mphamvu yake,” inatero nyuzipepala ya The New York Times, ya pa July 18, 2003.

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Mkulu wa boma akuonetsa chifaniziro cha bomba la nyukiliya looneka ngati sutukesi

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AP Photo/Dennis Cook

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Zida zakale zounikira mabomba a adani zinayamba kutha

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NASA photo

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Earth: NASA photo