N’chifukwa Chiyani Tikufunika Njira Zatsopano Zopangira Magetsi?

“Tikuona ngati mafuta akuvuta kupeza panopa, koma zaka 20 zikubwerazi, kuvuta kwake ndiye kudzachita kunyanyira, moti tizidzachita kusowa tulo.”—Ananena mawu amenewa ndi Jeremy Rifkin, wogwira ntchito ku bungwe loona momwe chuma cha dziko chikuyendera lotchedwa Foundation of Economic Trends, ku Washington, D.C., mu August 2003.

POMATHA zaka pafupifupi 20, pamene Micah tinamutchula mu nkhani yoyamba uja adzakhale atafika msinkhu wotha kuyendetsa galimoto, magetsi omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito padziko lonse “akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka ndi 58 peresenti,” malinga ndi lipoti lomwe boma la United States linafalitsa lotchedwa International Energy Outlook 2003, (IEO2003). Magazini ya New Scientist inati kuwonjezeka kumeneku “kudzakhala kwakukulu kwambiri m’mbiri yonse pa nkhani yogwiritsa ntchito magetsi.” Kodi njira zomwe anthu akhala akupangira magetsi m’mbuyo monsemu zingathe kupanga magetsi okwanira popanda kuwononga dziko? Taganizirani mfundo zoziziritsa nkhongono zotsatirazi.

MALASHA:

▪ Pakati pa mafuta, malasha, ndi gasi, malasha ndi amene alipo ambiri padziko pano kuposa zina zonsezo, ndipo alipo oti akuyembekezeka kukhalapo kwa zaka zina 1,000. Padziko lonse lapansi, malo opangira magetsi pogwiritsa ntchito malasha amapanga pafupifupi 40 peresenti ya magetsi onse a padziko lapansi. Dziko la Australia n’limene limagulitsa malasha ambiri ku mayiko ena, ndipo limagulitsa malasha opitirira theka la malasha onse amene amagulitsidwa ku mayiko ena padziko lapansi.

Komabe, lipoti laposachedwapa limene a bungwe la Worldwatch Institute anatulutsa linati: “Malasha amatulutsa mpweya woipa wambiri poyerekeza ndi mafuta ndi gasi . . . umene umapita mu mlengalenga padziko lonse lapansi, wokwana matani pafupifupi 2.7 biliyoni pachaka.” Kupatulapo pa kuwononga chilengedwe, kodi kuwotcha malasha kungawononge bwanji thanzi la anthu? Kungotchulapo chitsanzo chimodzi chokha, lipoti laposachedwapa la bungwe la United Nations lotchedwa Global Environment Outlook linati: “Ku China, utsi ndi tinthu tina ting’onoting’ono timene timatuluka malasha akamayaka timapha anthu opitirira 50 000 amene sanayenera kufa. Timadwalitsanso chifuwa chosatha anthu okwana 400 000 okhala m’mizinda 11 ikuluikulu ya m’dzikoli.”

 MAFUTA:

▪ Anthu padziko lonse lapansi panopa amagwiritsa ntchito mafuta okwana migolo 75 miliyoni patsiku. * Pa mafuta a padziko lonse lapansi, omwe akuti mwina analipo okwana migolo 2 thililiyoni kuchuluka kwake, mafuta okwana migolo pafupifupi 900 biliyoni agwiritsidwa kale ntchito. Malinga ndi mmene mafuta akupopedwera panopa, akuti mwina atsala ongokwanira zaka zina 40.

Komabe, mu 1998 akatswiri a sayansi ya nthaka Colin J. Campbell ndi Jean H. Laherrère anati: “M’zaka teni zikubwerazi, mafuta amene amapopedwa sadzakhala okwanira aliyense amene akuwafuna.” Akatswiri oona za malonda a mafuta amenewa anachenjeza kuti: “Anthu ambiri amaganiza kuti tingathe kupopa chidebe chomalizira cha mafuta kuchokera pansi pa nthaka mofulumira ngati momwe tikupopera mafuta ochuluka omwe alipo m’zitsime panopa. Koma zoona zake n’zoti mafuta amene chitsime, kapena dziko lililonse lingatulutse amawonjezeka mpaka kufika penapake. Kenaka, pafupifupi theka la mafutawo akatha, mafuta amene angapopedwe amayamba kuchepa mpaka amatheratu. Choncho kwa amalonda, nthawi imene mafuta adzatheretu padziko pano si nthawi imene amada nayo nkhawa kwambiri. Iwo amaganizira kwambiri nthawi imene mafuta adzayambe kuchepa.”

Kodi mafuta akuyembekezeka kuyamba kuchepa liti? Katswiri wina wa sayansi ya nthaka yokhudzana ndi mafuta dzina lake Joseph Riva anati, “mafuta amene akuyembekezeka kupopedwa . . . ndi osakwana theka la mafuta amene adzafunike pomadzafika chaka cha 2010 amene bungwe la IEA [International Energy Agency] linawerengetsera.” Magazini ya New Scientist inachenjeza kuti: “Ngati mafuta amene akupopedwa angayambe kuchepa pamene mafuta amene akufunika akuwonjezekabe, mitengo ya mafuta idzakwera kwambiri kapena idzayamba kusinthasintha kwambiri. Zimenezi zingadzayambitse chipwirikiti cha zamalonda, mavuto a kayendetsedwe ka zakudya ndi zinthu zina, ndiponso zingadzayambitse ngakhale nkhondo pamene mayiko azidzakanganirana mafuta ochepa otsalawo.”

Ngakhale kuti akatswiri ena akuona kuti kuchepa kwa mafuta amene atsala ndi vuto palokha, ena akuona kuti zimenezi n’zabwino chifukwa zikutanthauza kuti tisiya kudalira kwambiri mafuta. Jeremiah Creedon analemba m’magazini yotchedwa Utne Reader kuti: “Chinthu chokhacho chomwe chingakhale choipa kwambiri kuposa kutha kwa mafuta ndicho kusatha kwa mafuta. Mpweya woipa umene timapanga tikamaotcha mafuta ukupitirizabe kutenthetsa dzikoli, koma mpaka pano anthu akamanena za chuma cha dziko ndi chilengedwe amazinenabe ngati zinthu ziwiri zosiyana.” Posonyeza chitsanzo chimodzi chokha cha momwe mayiko akudalira kwambiri mafuta, bungwe la Australian Broadcasting Commission linati: “Magalimoto okwana 26 miliyoni a ku United Kingdom amatulutsa mbali yaikulu ya mpweya wonse woipa wa ku UK (umene umatenthetsa dziko) ndiponso . . . utsi woipa (umene umapha anthu pafupifupi 10,000 chaka chilichonse).”

 GASI:

▪ Pa zaka pafupifupi 20 zikubwerazi, “gasi akuti ndi amene azidzagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri kupanga magetsi padziko lonse lapansi,” linatero lipoti la IEO2003. Gasi ndi amene sawononga kwambiri chilengedwe poyerekezera ndi malasha ndi mafuta, ndipo anthu akukhulupirira kuti padziko lapansi pali gasi wambirimbiri.

Komabe, “palibe amene angadziwe bwinobwino kuti gasi alipo wochuluka bwanji, pokhapokha atamupopa,” linatero bungwe la ku Washington, D.C. lotchedwa Natural Gas Supply Association. “Zimene aliyense amanena zimakhala zochokera pa mfundo zosiyana . . . Choncho m’povuta kudziwa bwinobwino kuti kodi gasi alipo wochuluka bwanji.”

Mpweya umene umapanga mbali yaikulu ya gasi, “ndi mpweya wotenthetsa dziko kwambiri. Ndipo mpweya umenewu umatha kutenthetsa dziko kuwirikiza nthawi 21 kuposa mmene mipweya ina imatenthetsera dziko,” linatero bungwe la Natural Gas Supply Association tinalitchula kale lija. Komabe, bungwe lomweli linati pa kafukufuku wamkulu yemwe linachita bungwe la Environmental Protection Agency ndi la Gas Research Institute “anapeza kuti ngakhale kuti mpweya umenewu umatenthetsa dziko kwambiri, kugwiritsa ntchito gasi n’kwabwinobe akakuyerekezera ndi mmene kugwiritsira ntchito mafuta kapena malasha kumawonongera dziko.”

MPHAMVU YA MAGETSI YOCHOKERA KU MAATOMU:

▪ Magazini yotchedwa Australian Geographic inati: “Padziko lonse lapansi pali makina opangira magetsi kuchokera ku maatomu okwana 430 amene amapanga 16 peresenti ya magetsi onse amene amagwiritsidwa ntchito.” Kuwonjezera pa makina amene alipo kalewa, lipoti la IEO2003 linati: “Pofika mu February 2003, mayiko ongotukuka kumene a ku Asia anali akumanga makina 17 pa makina 35 atsopano amene akumangidwa padziko lonse lapansi.”

Anthu akupitirizabe kudalira magetsi ochokera ku maatomu ngakhale kuti akhoza kuchititsa ngozi zazikulu, ngati ngozi yomwe inachitika mu 1986 ku Chernobyl, m’dziko limene kale linkatchedwa Soviet Union. Magazini ya New Scientist inati: “Makina ambiri a ku America opanga magetsi kuchokera ku maatomu panopa ali ndi ming’alu ndipo akudyeka chifukwa cha dzimbiri.” Magaziniyo inanenanso kuti mu March 2002, makina otchedwa Davis-Besse a ku Ohio “anatsala pang’ono kuphulika” chifukwa chodyeka ndi dzimbiri.

Popeza njira zopangira magetsi panopa n’zochepa ndiponso zimawononga chilengedwe, funso limene limabuka n’loti, Kodi anthu sangachitire mwina kusiyapo kuwononga dziko pofuna kupanga mphamvu za magetsi zoti zikhoza kuwakwanira? N’zachidziwikire kuti tikufunika kupeza njira zina zosawononga dziko ndiponso zodalirika zopangira magetsi. Kodi njira zoterozo zilipo ndipo kodi tingazikwanitse?

[Mawu a M’munsi]