Kodi Dziko Lapansi Lili pa Mavuto Aakulu?

KUTENTHA KWA DZIKO akuti ndi vuto lalikulu kwambiri limene lingawononge anthu onse. Malinga ndi magazini ya Science, zimene zikudetsa nkhawa akatswiri ofufuza ndi “mfundo yakuti tayambitsa vuto limene likukula pang’onopang’ono koma lomwe sitingathe kulithetsa.” Komabe anthu ena amatsutsa mfundo imeneyi. Ambiri mwa otsutsawa amavomereza kuti dziko likutentha, koma amati zimene zayambitsa kutenthako ndiponso mavuto amene angabwere, sakuzidziwa. Otsutsawa amanena kuti zochita za anthu mwina zingachititsedi vutoli, koma si zomwe zikuwononga kwambiri. N’chifukwa chiyani pali kusiyana maganizo kotere?

Chifukwa china n’chakuti chilengedwe cha nyengo ndi chovuta komanso sitingathe kuchimvetsa. Ndiponso, pofuna kulimbikitsa maganizo awo, mabungwe oteteza zachilengedwe amapotoza zimene asayansi apeza pa kafukufuku, monga mfundo zosonyeza chomwe chikuchititsa kuti kutentha kuwonjezereke.

Kodi Temperecha Ikukweradi?

Malinga ndi lipoti la bungwe lokhazikitsidwa ndi United Nations loona za nyengo la IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ), mfundo ya kutentha kwa dziko ndi “yosatsutsika” ndipo “mosakayikira” anthu ndi amene akuchititsa kwambiri vutoli. Anthu amene amatsutsa mfundoyi, makamaka yakuti anthu ndiwo amayambitsa vutoli, amavomerezabe kuti mizinda ingakhale ikutentha chifukwa chakuti ikukula. Ndiponso konkire ndi zitsulo zimatentha kwambiri masana ndi dzuwa, koma zimazizira pang’onopang’ono usiku. Choncho, iwo amati zotsatira zimene amapeza akayeza temperecha m’mizinda sizisonyeza zimene zikuchitika ku midzi. Motero zimasokoneza zotsatira zimene amapeza akayeza temperecha ya dziko lonse lapansi.

Komabe, Clifford, nduna ya pamudzi wina wa pachilumba kufupi ndi Alaska, akuti waona ndi maso ake zinthu zikusintha. Anthu a m’mudzi mwake amayenda pa aisi kupita ku Alaska kukasaka nyama monga mphalapala ndi nswala. Koma chifukwa chakuti temperecha ikukwera, anthu sakuthanso kukhala moyo umene anauzolowera. Clifford akuti “kayendedwe ka madzi m’nyanja komanso ka mphepo kasintha, aisi wasintha, ndipo nthawi yomwe madzi a m’nyanja ya Chukchi ankaundana yasinthanso.” Iye akuti madzi a m’nyanjayi ankaundana ku mapeto kwa mwezi wa October koma masiku ano amaundana kumapeto kwa December.

Mu 2007, kutentha kunaonekeranso pamene njira yapanyanja yotchedwa Northwest Passage kumpoto kwa dziko lapansi, inatseguka kwambiri kwa nthawi yoyamba. Wasayansi wa bungwe lina la ku United States anati: “Zomwe taona chaka chino zikusonyeza kuti nyengo imene aisi amasungunuka ikutalika.”—Bungwe la National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Kufunda kwa Dziko Kumathandiza Zamoyo

Akatswiri akunena kuti zinthu zikusintha chonchi chifukwa chakuti kufunda kwa dziko, komwe ndi njira ya chilengedwe yothandiza zamoyo, kwasokonekera. Mphamvu ya dzuwa ikafika pa dziko, pafupifupi 70 peresenti ya mphamvuyo imatsala, n’kutenthetsa mpweya, nthaka ndi nyanja. Kupanda zimenezi, bwenzi padziko pano pakuzizira kwambiri kufika madigiri Seshasi -18. M’kupita kwa nthawi, mphamvu ya dzuwa imene imatsala pa dzikoli imabwereranso mu mlengalenga, chotero dziko silitentha mopitirira muyeso. Koma zinthu zowononga chilengedwe zikachuluka mu mpweya, mphamvu ya  dzuwa imene imabwerera mu mlengalenga imakhala yochepa kwambiri. Zimenezi zingachititse kuti temperecha ya dziko lapansi ikwere kwambiri.

Mitundu ya mpweya imene imawonjezera kutentha ndi monga carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide ndi methane, komanso nthunzi. Mitundu ya mpweya imeneyi yawonjezereka kwambiri zaka 250 zapitazi, kungochokera pamene ntchito za mafakitale zinayamba, ndiponso pamene anayamba kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri malasha ndi mafuta. Chinthu chinanso chomwe chikuoneka kuti chikuwonjezera kutentha kwa dziko ndicho kuchuluka kwa ziweto, zimene zimatulutsa mpweya wa methane ndi nitrous oxide. Akatswiri ena amatchula zifukwa zina zimene zimayambitsa kutentha kwa dziko zimene amati zinalipo kale, anthu asanayambe kuchita zinthu zowononga nyengo.

Kodi Ndi Mmenedi Chilengedwe Chimachitira?

Anthu amene amatsutsa mfundo yakuti anthu ndi omwe akuchititsa kutentha kwa dziko, amanena kuti m’mbuyomu temperecha ya dzikoli yakhala ikusinthasintha. Iwo amapereka chitsanzo cha nthawi imene ena amati nyengo za aisi, pamene dziko lapansi liyenera kuti linali lozizira kwambiri kuposa panopa. Polimbikitsa mfundo yakuti dziko limatentha mwachilengedwe, iwo amapereka umboni wakuti madera ozizira kwambiri, monga dziko la Greenland, kale anali ndi zomera zimene zimapezeka ku madera otentha. Komabe, asayansi amavomereza kuti akafuna kubwerera m’mbuyo kuti afufuze mmene nyengo inkasinthira kalekalelo, zimawavuta kudziwa mmene nyengo inalili.

Kodi n’chiyani chingakhale kuti chinkachititsa kuti temperecha izisinthasintha anthu asanayambe kuwononga zachilengedwe? Mwina zingakhale zinthu monga nthawi imene dzuwa limakhala ndi mbali zina zakuda ndiponso nthawi zina pamene mphamvu za dzuwa zimaphulikira mu mlengalenga. Panthawi zimenezi mphamvu zimene dzuwa limatulutsa zimasinthasintha. Ndiponso, njira imene dziko lapansi limayenda pozungulira dzuwa imasinthasintha pa zaka masauzande ambiri, ndipo zimenezi zimasintha mtunda umene umakhala pakati pa dziko lapansi ndi dzuwa. Komanso fumbi la mapiri ophulika ndi kayendedwe ka madzi m’nyanja zimasintha nyengo.

 Zitsanzo za Pakompyuta Zosonyeza Nyengo

Ngati temperecha ya dzikoli ikukwera pazifukwa zilizonsezo, kodi zingabweretse mavuto anji kwa ifeyo komanso chilengedwe? N’zovuta kuneneratu zenizenizo zimene zingachitike. Komabe masiku ano, asayansi ali ndi makompyuta amphamvu kwambiri amene amagwiritsa ntchito kupanga zitsanzo zosonyeza zanyengo. Polemba mapulogalamu a pakompyuta a zitsanzozo, iwo amagwiritsa ntchito malamulo a chilengedwe, zofufuza za akatswiri a zanyengo ndiponso zochitika zachilengedwe zimene zimasintha nyengo.

Zitsanzo zimenezi zimathandiza asayansi kuyerekezera zochitika zanyengo m’njira imene singatheke popanda makompyutawo. Mwachitsanzo, iwo angayerekezere kusintha mphamvu ya dzuwa kuti aone chimene chingachitike ndi aisi kumadera ozizira kwambiri, temperecha ya mpweya ndi ya madzi a m’nyanja, mphamvu ya mpweya, mphepo, mvula, kapangidwe ka mitambo ndiponso kuchuluka kwa madzi amene angauluke ngati nthunzi. Angayerekezerenso kupanga ndi kuphulitsa mapiri kuti aone mmene fumbi lotuluka m’mapiriwo lingasinthire nyengo. Pogwiritsanso ntchito makompyutawo, iwo angathe kufufuza zotsatira za kuchuluka kwa anthu, kudula mitengo mwachisawawa, kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka nthaka, kuwonjezereka kapena kuchepa kwa mitundu ya mpweya imene imafunditsa dziko, ndi zina zotero. Asayansi akuganiza kuti m’kupita kwa nthawi, makompyuta awo adzakhala olondola ndi odalirika kwambiri.

Koma kodi zitsanzo za pakompyutazi n’zolondola? Kuti zikhale zolondola, zimadaliranso kuchuluka kwa zimene alowetsa m’makompyutawo komanso ngati zimene alowetsazo zili zolondola. Motero, zitsanzo za nyengo zimene ali nazo zimasiyanasiyana, zina zimasonyeza kusintha kosadetsa nkhawa ndipo zina kodetsa nkhawa. Magazini ya Science inanena kuti ngakhale zili choncho, “nyengo [yachilengedwe] ingachite zinthu zimene sitikuziyembekezera.” Ndipotu zina zayamba kale kuchitika, monga aisi amene akusungunuka mofulumira kwambiri ku Arctic. Zimenezi zadabwitsa akatswiri a zanyengo ambiri. Komabe, ngakhale ngati anthu opanga malamulo akanatha kudziwa pang’ono chabe zotsatirapo za zimene anthu akuchita kapena sakuchita pakali pano, iwo angathebe kupanga zosankha panopa zimene zingadzachepetse mavuto m’tsogolo.

Poganizira mfundo imeneyi, a bungwe la IPCC anafufuza zitsanzo 6 za pakompyuta za zochitika zosiyanasiyana. Mwachitsanzo anaona zimene zingachitike ngati mitundu ya mpweya wofunditsa dziko yawonjezereka mopitirira malire, kapena ngati zinthu zasiyidwa mmene zililimu, komanso ngati atakhwimitsa malamulo. Atachita zimenezi anapeza kuti chochitika chilichonse chinali ndi njira yakeyake imene chinasinthira nyengo ndi kuwononga zachilengedwe. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, akatswiri akulimbikitsa kuti pakhazikitsidwe njira zosiyanasiyana zofunika kuzitsatira. Zina mwa njirazi ndizo kupanga malamulo oletsa kugwiritsa ntchito malasha ndi mafuta ochuluka, kulanga anthu ophwanya malamulowa, kupanga magetsi a mphamvu za nyukiliya, ndiponso kugwiritsa ntchito luso lamakono losawononga zachilengedwe.

Kodi Zitsanzo za Pakompyutazi N’zodalirika?

Anthu okayikira za kusintha kwa nyengo amanena kuti njira zimene akatswiri akugwiritsa ntchito panopa pofuna kudziwa za nyengo “zimakokomeza zinthu ndipo iwo samvetsa zanyengo komanso amanyalanyaza zochitika zina zokhudza nyengo.” Okayikirawo  amanenanso kuti zimene makompyutawo amasonyeza zimatsutsana. Wasayansi wina amene anakhala nawo pa zokambirana za bungwe la IPCC, anati: “Enafe timagoma kwambiri tikamayesa kufufuza ndi kumvetsa zinthu zodabwitsa kwambiri zokhudza nyengo motero kuti timadzikayikira ngati tingathe kudziwa zimene nyengo ikuchita ndiponso chifukwa chake ikuchita zimenezo.” *

Ena anganene kuti kungokhala osachita chilichonse chifukwa choganiza kuti zinthu zakezi n’zokayikitsa, n’kusaganizira za m’tsogolo. Iwo amati: “Tidzati chiyani kwa ana athu?” Kaya zitsanzo za pakompyutazo n’zolondola kapena ayi, sitikukayika kuti dziko lapansi lili pa mavuto aakulu. Zinthu zimene zamoyo zimadalira sizikugwira bwino ntchito chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa mpweya, madzi ndi nthaka. Komanso chifukwa cha kudula mitengo mwachisawawa, kukula kwa mizinda ndi kutha kwa mitundu ina ya zachilengedwe. Apa tangotchula zinthu zochepa chabe zimene palibe munthu amene angatsutse ngakhale pang’ono.

Ndi zimene tikudziwa, kodi tingayembekeze anthu onse kusintha moyo wawo kuti tipulumutse mudzi wathu wokongolawu ndi kudzipulumutsanso ife eni? Komanso, ngati anthu ndiwo akuchititsa kuti dziko lizitentha, ndiye kuti tilibenso nthawi yokwanira yakuti tisinthe zinthu. Ndiponso kuti zinthu zisinthe, pafunika mwamsanga kuthana ndi phata la mavuto a dzikoli lomwe likuphatikizapo dyera la anthu, kudzikonda, umbuli, maboma olephera ndiponso kupanda chidwi kwa anthu. Kodi zimenezi n’zotheka kapena ndi maloto chabe? Kodi ngati ali maloto chabe, tinganenenso kuti tili ndi chiyembekezo chilichonse? Funso limeneli liyankhidwa m’nkhani yotsatira.

[Mawu a M’munsi]

[Bokosi/Chithunzi patsamba 5]

KODI ZINGATHEKE BWANJI KUYEZA TEMPERECHA YA DZIKO LAPANSI?

Kuchita zimenezi n’kovuta. Kuti mumvetse kuvuta kwake, tayerekezerani kuti mukufuna kuyeza temperecha ya chipinda chimodzi chachikulu. Kodi kachipangizo koyezera temperecha mungakaike pati? Mpweya wotentha umakwera m’mwamba, choncho mpweya wa kudenga ungatentherepo kuposa mpweya wa pansi. Kachipangizo koyezerako kangasonyeze ziwerengero zosalondola ngati mungakaike pafupi ndi windo, pamene pali dzuwa, kapena pamthunzi. Komanso ziwerengerozi zingasinthe chifukwa cha mtundu wa maonekedwe a m’chipindacho. Izi zili choncho chifukwa chakuti mbali zimene zili ndi mtundu wakuda zimatentha kwambiri.

Motero, kungoyeza temperecha kamodzi kokha kungakhale kosakwanira. Mungafunikire kuyeza malo osiyanasiyana a chipindacho, kenako n’kuphatikiza ziwerengerozo ndi kupeza avereji. Chinanso, temperecha imasintha tsiku ndi tsiku komanso nyengo ikasintha. Choncho kuti mupeze avereji yolondola, mungafunikire kuyeza temperecha kambirimbiri komanso kwa nthawi yaitali. Ndiyeno tangoganizani chintchito chomwe chimakhalapo kuti ayeze temperecha yonse ya mtunda, mlengalenga ndi nyanja za dziko lapansi. Ngakhale kuti kuchita zimenezi n’kovuta, ziwerengerozi n’zofunika kwambiri kuti adziwe molondola mmene nyengo ikusinthira.

[Mawu a Chithunzi]

NASA photo

[Bokosi/Chithunzi patsamba 6]

KODI MAGETSI A MPHAMVU ZA NYUKILIYA ANGATHETSE VUTOLI?

Padziko lonse lapansi, zinthu zofuna magetsi zikuwonjezereka kwambiri kuposa kalelonse. Mafuta ndi malasha amene amagwiritsa ntchito popanga magetsi amatulutsa mitundu ya mpweya wowononga zachilengedwe. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, maboma ena akuganiza zogwiritsa ntchito magetsi a mphamvu za nyukiliya amene satulutsa utsi. Komabe magetsi amenewa alinso ndi mavuto ake.

Dziko la France ndi limodzi mwa mayiko omwe amadalira kwambiri magetsi a mphamvu za nyukiliya. Malinga ndi zimene nyuzipepala ya International Herald Tribune inanena, dziko la France lifunikira madzi ochuluka kwambiri okwanira makyubiki mita 19 biliyoni pachaka, oziziritsira makina amene amapangira magetsi amenewa. Kutatentha kwambiri mu 2003, madzi otentha otuluka m’makina amenewa akanakweza kwambiri temperecha ya mitsinje mwakuti akanawononga zamoyo m’mitsinjeyo. Poopa zimenezi, anatseka nyumba zina zopangira magetsiwa. Ngati temperecha ya dziko lapansi ingakwere, ndiye kuti angatseke nyumba zambiri zopangira magetsiwa.

David Lochbaum, yemwe ndi injiniya wa magetsi a nyukiliya wa bungwe la Union of Concerned Scientists, anati: “Ngati tikufuna magetsi a mphamvu za nyukiliya, tifunika kuthetsa kaye vuto la kusintha kwa nyengo.”

[Bokosi/Chithunzi patsamba 7]

MASOKA AMENE ANABWERA NDI KUSINTHA KWA NYENGO MU 2007

Chaka cha 2007 kunachitika masoka ambiri obwera ndi kusintha kwa nyengo amene sanachitikepo. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, a bungwe la United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs anapempha thandizo lamwadzidzidzi maulendo 14. Chiwerengero chimenechi chinapitirira cha mu 2005 ndi maulendo 4. Pano tangosonyeza ena mwa masoka amene anachitika mu 2007. Komabe, dziwani kuti tsoka lililonse palokha silikusonyeza kuti zimenezi ndi zimene zizichitika nthawi zonse.

▪ Britain: Anthu oposa 350,000 anakhudzidwa ndi kusefukira koopsa kwa madzi kumene sikunachitikepo pa zaka 60 zapitazo. Ku England ndi ku Wales kunagwa mvula yambiri m’miyezi ya May mpaka July imene sinagwepo kuyambira mu 1766 pamene anayamba kusunga kaundula wa kagwedwe ka mvula.

▪ West Africa: Madzi osefukira anakhudza anthu 800,000 m’mayiko 14.

▪ Lesotho: Chifukwa cha kutentha kwambiri ndiponso chilala, mbewu zinawonongeka. Anthu okwanira 553,000 angafunikire thandizo la chakudya.

▪ Sudan: Kutagwa mvula yambiri, anthu 150,000 anasowa pokhala. Enanso osachepera 500,000 analandira thandizo.

▪ Madagascar: Mphepo yamkuntho ndi mvula zinasakaza chilumbachi, ndipo anthu 33,000 analibe kokhala komanso mbewu za anthu 260,000 zinawonongeka.

▪ North Korea: Moyo wa anthu pafupifupi 960,000 unasokonekera chifukwa cha kusefukira kwa madzi, zigumukire ndi chithope.

▪ Bangladesh: Madzi osefukira anakhudza anthu 8,500,000 ndipo anapha anthu oposa 3,000 komanso ziweto 1,250,000. Nyumba pafupifupi 1,500,000 zinawonongeka mwina ndi mwina kapena kugweratu.

▪ India: Madzi osefukira anakhudza anthu 30 miliyoni.

▪ Pakistan: Mvula yamphepo inasiya anthu 377,000 opanda pokhala ndipo inapha ena mazanamazana.

▪ Bolivia: Anthu oposa 350,000 anakhudzidwa ndi madzi osefukira ndipo anthu 25,000 anasowa pokhala.

▪ Mexico: M’madera ena madzi osefukira anasiya anthu osachepera 500,000 alibe pokhala ndipo anakhudza enanso oposa 1 miliyoni.

▪ Dominican Republic: Mvula itagwa kwa nthawi yaitali, madzi anasefukira ndipo kunakhala zigumukire, motero kuti anthu 65,000 anatsala alibe pokhala.

▪ United States: Moto umene unabuka m’nkhalango youma kwambiri kum’mwera kwa California unachititsa anthu 500,000 kuthawa kusiya nyumba zawo.

[Mawu a Chithunzi]

Based on NASA/Visible Earth imagery